Greetings,
The art market has started off the 2018 year with robust energy and sales following on the heels of exciting events in 2017.
A close up of the painting ‘Salvator Mundi’ by Leonardo da Vinci at Christie’s. Credit Drew Angerer/Getty Images.
The thrilling sale and creative marketing of the Salvador Mundi Da Vinci painting was extraordinary to witness and unprecedented in its success. This single event would come to shatter 2017 predictions for the art world, after the 19-minute battle and “beyond-predictable” sale price of $450 million. The 500-year-old painting, jumped $30 million in a single increment and annihilated what “we thought we knew about the art market.”
The Impressionist, Modern and Contemporary sales in Europe this spring have exceeded expectations and TEFAF in Maastricht witnessed a frenzied buying fever. Certainly one of the most stirring events of 2018 will be the Rockefeller sale at Christie’s. Having seen the highlights of the collection in London myself, this will certainly be the biggest sale for many years to come. 
“San Geremia,” by John Singer Sargent. This piece will be a part of the Rockefeller sale at Christie’s.
Extraordinary as the art market seems, the reality somewhat belies the fact of the market really being “a tale of two markets.” In Clare McAndrew’s thoughtful annual art market report, she suggests that the art market is $63.7 billion in sales—with galleries representing 53% of that and auctions 47%. And while these figures are remarkable, it’s clear that these two markets are polarizing, the top end with pieces at $1 million and over—works of which account for “64% of sales, while representing just 1% of transactions”—and the middle-market, that of which, seems to be languishing.
In this new “tale of two art worlds,” the dealers and auctions houses are each reacting to the seismic shifts that the art market has seen in recent years. The art fairs and the evolution of event-driven market have been the most significant trend of dealers in recent years; McAndrew writes that “$15.5 billion worth of art was sold at art fairs.” Whereas auction houses are having to increasingly rely on guarantees to hedge the vagaries of the market. As Georgina Adam states, “I predict the use of guarantees will accelerate, and that in the foreseeable future, we will not be seeing any highly estimated work of art going up for sale without this protection.”
Additionally, online sales—which now represents an estimated $5.4 billion, according to McAndrew—are growing venue for the middle market.
And certainly one of the biggest changes in the market in recent years has been the growth in the Asian market with all auction houses reporting significant growth in Asian buyers in 2017.
The polarized art market is not dissimilar to what’s happening in the world today, should you have any questions on the best approach to this nuanced market I’d be happy to share with you my experience and insights from 40 years in this art world.
Best regards,
Bill Cottingham
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www.cottinghamfineart.com
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